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  1. Abstract

    Sea‐level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage these risks. Representing the often deep uncertainties influencing these risks poses nontrivial challenges. A common uncertainty characterization approach is to use a few benchmark cases to represent the range and relative probabilities of the set of possible outcomes. This has been done in coastal adaptation studies, for example, by using low, moderate, and high percentiles of an input of interest, like sea‐level changes. A key consideration is how this simplified characterization of uncertainty influences the distributions of estimated coastal impacts. Here, we show that using only a few benchmark percentiles to represent uncertainty in future sea‐level change can lead to overconfident projections and underestimate high‐end risks as compared to using full ensembles for sea‐level change and socioeconomic parametric uncertainties. When uncertainty in future sea level is characterized by low, moderate, and high percentiles of global mean sea‐level rise, estimates of high‐end (95th percentile) damages are underestimated by between 18% (SSP1‐2.6) and 46% (SSP5‐8.5). Additionally, using the 5th and 95th percentiles of sea‐level scenarios underestimates the 5%–95% width of the distribution of adaptation costs by a factor ranging from about two to four, depending on SSP‐RCP pathway. The resulting underestimation of the uncertainty range in adaptation costs can bias adaptation and mitigation decision‐making.

     
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  2. Abstract

    The symbiotic relationship between dinoflagellate algae in the family Symbiodiniaceae and scleractinian corals forms the base of the tropical reef ecosystem. In scleractinian corals, recruits acquire symbionts either “vertically” from the maternal colony or initially lack symbionts and acquire them “horizontally” from the environment. Regardless of the mode of acquisition, coral species and individual colonies harbor only a subset of the highly diverse complex of species/taxa within the Symbiodiniaceae. This suggests a genetic basis for specificity, but local environmental conditions and/or symbiont availability may also play a role in determining which symbionts within the Symbiodiniaceae are initially taken up by the host. To address the relative importance of genetic and environmental drivers of symbiont uptake/establishment, we examined the acquisition of these dinoflagellate symbionts in one to three‐month‐old recruits ofOrbicella faveolatato compare symbiont types present in recruits to those of parental populations versus co‐occurring adults in their destination reef. Variation in chloroplast 23S ribosomal DNA and in three polymorphic microsatellite loci was examined. We found that, in general, symbiont communities within adult colonies differed between reefs, suggesting that endemism is common among symbiont populations ofO. faveolataon a local scale. Among recruits, initial symbiont acquisition was selective.O. faveolatarecruits only acquired a subset of locally available symbionts, and these generally did not reflect symbiont populations in adults at either the parental or the outplant reef. Instead, symbiont communities within new recruits at a given outplant site and region tended to be similar to each other, regardless of parental source population. These results suggest temporal variation in the local symbiont source pool, although other possible drivers behind the distinct difference between symbionts withinO. faveolataadults and new generations of recruits may include different ontogenetic requirements and/or reduced host selectivity in early ontogeny.

     
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